Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

Russian casualties in Ukraine.
Mediazona count, updated

Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers, continues collecting data on Russian military casualties in Ukraine. The numbers provided are derived from publicly available sources, such as social media posts by family members, local news reports, and official announcements from regional authorities. However, it is important to note that these figures offer only a partial picture and do not encompass the full scope of the casualties.

To address this, we present an additional figure alongside the count of named death records. This second number is an estimate of excess mortality among men, derived from the Probate Registry database. The methodology for this estimate was developed in partnership with Meduza.

ЧИТАТЬ НА РУССКОМ

About Our Reports

This report is divided into two main sections:

Bi-weekly Summary. This section is updated every two weeks and provides a written overview of our most recent findings on Russian military casualties. We also identify the events at the front lines that have led to the deaths of Russian soldiers.

Interactive Infographics. The second section showcases visual representations of the casualties since the beginning of the war. These infographics include information such as the military units in which the deceased served and the regions where they lived. While the data in this section is regularly updated, the accompanying text descriptions are revised but largely remain the same.

For a comprehensive explanation of the methodology used to estimate the number of deaths based on data from the Probate Registry, please follow the link.

Last update of the names list: 26 April 2024

Last update of the Probate Registry estimate: 15 March 2024

On April 19, a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in the Stavropol region. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, claims the aircraft was shot down by Ukraine, while Russia insists the reason was technical failure.

In any case, this is the first plane of this type destroyed since the start of the full-scale invasion. Two of the four crew members died: navigator Anrdei Grushanin from the Saratov region and assistant commander Andrei Kononov, born in the Altai Krai.

Russia often uses bombers of this type in strikes on Ukrainian cities. If Ukraine was indeed able to shoot down an aircraft like that, it can be considered a huge success—albeit a limited one, since Russia has many Tu-22M3s and it won’t stop the strikes.

The previous significant success of the Ukrainian army was the destruction of two A-50s, early warning and control planes, earlier in 2024.

We currently have 238 names of military pilots, navigators and other plane and helicopter crew members in our list. The casualties in this branch reached their peak in the first weeks of the full-scale war. But then Russia changed its tactics, and losses among military pilots dropped.

It’s important to note that the number of inmates increased significantly in this update. As of April 12, there were about 9,000 in our list, but now the number exceeds 10,500. This has no connection with ongoing military operations. In the last two weeks, we have been closely studying the “no data available” category (when it’s impossible to determine where and how a person served from their obituary). We were able to find active sentences and other indications of inmate status for about 1,500 people.

What we know about the casualties

The distribution of casualties across Russian regions is presented in absolute figures, these numbers have not been adjusted in relation to regional population sizes or the concentration of military units.

Readers can view either overall losses or those specific to different branches of the armed forces. Additionally, there is information regarding the native regions of the mobilised soldiers.

In most cases, the branch of service or the way the deceased ended up in the army (mobilized, volunteer, inmate, etc.) can be determined from the death reports or indirectly, through uniform or sleeve patches in photos.

We compared these groups of military personnel in a separate chart to provide a clearer picture of the distribution of casualties among different categories of soldiers.

Since the summer, volunteer units bore the brunt of casualties, a stark contrast to the war’s initial phase. During the winter and early spring, the heaviest losses were sustained by the Airborne Forces, followed by the Motorised Rifle Troops.

By the end of 2022 and entering the new year, there was a marked increase in fatalities among prisoners conscripted into the Wagner PMC. These conscripts were formed into “assault groups” for offensives against Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut.

By March 2023, these prisoners represented the largest single category of losses in the conflict. Following the assault on Bakhmut, there have been no reported instances of mass deployment of these prisoner units.

As of January 19, the confirmed death toll among Russian army officers and other security forces exceeded 3,400, with 395 of these officers being of Lieutenant Colonel rank or higher.

Officers killed in Ukraine

As of today, official confirmation has been received regarding the deaths of two deputy army commanders: Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky of the 41st Army, and Major General Vladimir Frolov of the 8th Army.

In late May 2022, retired Major General Kanamat Botashev, 63, a former fighter pilot, was killed, presumably having volunteered for combat. Additionally, Captain 1st Rank Andrei Paliy, the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet, was also reported among the casualties. On June 5, 2022, the death of Major General Roman Kutuzov was reported.

In June 2023, the death of Major General Sergei Goryachev was announced. He served as the chief of staff for the 35th Combined Arms Army, responsible for confronting the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.

By July 2023, the death of the first Lieutenant General, Oleg Tsokov, deputy commander of the Southern Military District, was confirmed.

In November 2023, Major General Vladimir Zavadsky was killed. He served as the deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps.

Nearly 39,700 reports specify the dates of military personnel deaths. While the daily loss figures derived from this data may not accurately reflect the total casualties, they provide an indication of the intensity of the fighting on specific days.

It is important to note that the most recent data is likely to be incomplete and subject to significant revisions in the future.

In 43,100 of the casualty reports, the ages of the deceased are mentioned. In the initial six months of the conflict, characterized by the deployment of regular military forces without the inclusion of volunteers, mobilised troops, or prisoners, the most significant number of fatalities occurred in the 21–23 age group.

The age profile diverges notably for volunteers and mobilised soldiers. Those who volunteer for combat service are predominantly in the age bracket of 30–35 years or older. The mobilised personnel are generally over the age of 25.

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