Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine.
Mediazona count, updated

Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers, maintains a named list of deceased Russian military personnel. This list is compiled from verified, publicly available sources, including social media posts by family members, local news reports, and official announcements from regional authorities. This list is not exhaustive, as not every military death becomes public knowledge.

To provide a more comprehensive picture of the war’s impact, we offer a second figure: an estimate of excess mortality among men, based on Probate registry data. This method was developed in collaboration with Meduza, to address the limitations of relying solely on publicly reported deaths.

ЧИТАТЬ НА РУССКОМ

About our reports

This publication is divided into two parts:

Bi-weekly Summary. A text summary, updated every two weeks. Here we report what we’ve learned about the losses during this time and the events at the front that led to the deaths of Russian soldiers.

Interactive Infographics. The second part showcases visual representations of losses since the beginning of the war: for example, where the deceased served or in which regions they lived. We update the data for this part; the text descriptions are updated but largely remain the same.

For a detailed description of our method for calculating the estimated number of losses based on the Probate Registry data, please follow the link.

Last update of the named list: July 19, 2024

Last update of the Probate Registry estimate: July 5, 2024; estimate as of late June 2024

July saw yet another conflict among Russian pro-war Z-bloggers over the Akhmat battalion, a paramilitary organisation based Chechnya and named after Ramzan Kadyrov’s father. The Kadyrovites forced Z-blogger Vladimir Romanov to apologise on camera because he called the Akhmat fighers ‘tiktokers’ who ‘stand behind conscripts’ in the Belgorod region.

This is not the first discussion of the effectiveness of Kadyrov’s units: in the z-media, it is commonly believed that they take almost no part in combat operations, but only war-related PR activities.

Mediazona has studied data on Akhmat’s losses for the entire duration of the war and can confirm this information, with a few reservations.

In total, we know the names of 230 people who faught in the Akhmat battalion and died in the war. However, it’s important to note: the vast majority of those who died were not Kadyrov’s men, that is, not security forces close to the Chechen leadership, but ordinary volunteers from all over Russia.

Ramzan Kadyrov was one of the first to start recruiting volunteers through the Grozny mayor’s office and the so-called Russian Special Force University, a private organisation based in Chechnya. In the summer of 2022, this was a popular destination for volunteers. At that time, the Ministry of Defence had not yet deployed its networks for collecting men for war, and Kadyrov offered acceptable conditions: money, uniforms and training.

Ethnic Chechens are a minority on Akhmat’s casualty lists—and most of them are ordinary residents of the republic. Some, as the media reported, may have been sent to the war as ‘volunteers’ by force.

On the other hand, our identification of the dead in Chechnya may be much lower than in other regions. It is a very closed republic; obituaries are published here much less frequently.

Our overall estimate based on the Russian Probate Registry remains the same: by June 2024, approximately 120,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war (with a 95% confidence interval of 106,000 to 140,000). These calculations take time, so we will be updating the estimate once a month.

What we know about losses

Here’s how the losses are distributed across Russian regions. These are absolute numbers, not adjusted for population or number of military units.

On the map, you can choose between total losses and losses by military branch, as well as see where the deceased mobilised soldiers were from.

In most cases, from death reports or indirect signs (uniform or sleeve patches in photos), it’s possible to determine which branch of the military the deceased served in, or how they joined the army (mobilised, volunteer, prisoner, etc.)

We compared these groups of servicemen on a separate graph.

From early summer, volunteers bore the brunt of the losses, which is strikingly different from the situation in the initial stage of the war: in winter and early spring, the Airborne Forces suffered the greatest damage, followed by the Motorised Rifle troops.

By the end of 2022 and the beginning of the next year, losses among prisoners recruited into the Wagner PMC increased markedly. They were formed into “assault groups” to overwhelm Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut.

By March 2023, prisoners became the largest category of war losses. After the capture of Bakhmut, there have been no cases of mass use of prisoners so far.

By May 24, the death of 3,749 officers of the Russian army and other security structures had been confirmed. 437 of them are in the rank of Lieutenant Colonel and above.

Officers killed in Ukraine

To date, reports of the deaths of two deputy army commanders have been officially confirmed—Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky of the 41st Army and Major General Vladimir Frolov of the 8th Army.

On May 22, 2022, fighter pilot, 63-year-old retired Major General Kanamat Botashev died; most likely, he went to war as a volunteer. The deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Captain 1st Rank Andrei Paliy, was also killed. On June 5, 2022, the death of Major General Roman Kutuzov was reported.

In June 2023, Major General Sergei Goryachev was killed. He was the chief of staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army and commanded the repulsion of the Ukrainian counterattack in the Zaporizhzhia region.

In July 2023, the death of the first Lieutenant General was confirmed—Oleg Tsokov, deputy commander of the Southern Military District.

In November 2023, Major General Vladimir Zavadsky was killed. He was the deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps.

The date of death of servicemen is specified in 46,000 reports. The number of losses per day according to this data hardly reflects the real picture, but it allows us to assume on which days the battles were the most intense.

It should always be taken into account that the data of the last few weeks is the most incomplete and may change significantly in the future.

Age is mentioned in 51,000 reports. In the first six months of the war, when the regular army participated in the invasion without volunteers, mobilised soldiers, and prisoners, most deaths were in the 21–23 age group.

Volunteers and mobilised soldiers are significantly older: people voluntarily go to war at 30–35 years or older, and the mobilised are generally over 25.

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